| author |
prediction |
testable |
status |
updated |
ezra klein
|
We will spend a trillion or a bit more covering the un- and underinsured.
23.6.2009
|
23 months
|
open |
24.7.2009 |
simon walters
|
Gordon Brown "plans to quit before next election to avoid humiliating defeat"
21.6.2009
|
2 months
|
open |
8.7.2009 |
bruce bueno de mesquita
|
Iran will have mastered the generation of energy-grade nuclear material by early 2011, and given up on development of nuclear bombs in favor of civilian nuclear energy.
1.2.2009
|
15 months
|
open |
8.7.2009 |
nate silver
|
at least one serious contender for the Republican nomination in 2012 will be someone newly elected to his or her state's governorship in 2010.
(Nate isn't clear what is meant by "serious contender", but "still in the race at the end of February" seems reasonable)
7.5.2009
|
25 months
|
open |
8.5.2009 |
bruce bueno de mesquita
|
By 2011, no major Iranian faction or political leader will publicly endorse testing a nuclear weapon.
7.2.2009
|
10 months
|
open |
12.4.2009 |
bruce bueno de mesquita
|
By the end of December 2010, Iran will have made a quantity of weapons-grade uranium less than needed for a bomb but more than needed just for research.
It will have neither made a bomb, tested one, nor maintained only a nuclear program that engaged in civilian activities.
7.2.2009
|
-2 months
|
open |
12.4.2009 |
joe biden
|
"There will be an additional job loss. ... You're not going to see reports this calendar year saying there was no job loss this month. That is not going to happen. ...There will continue to be job losses the remainder of this year."
7.4.2009
|
-1 months
|
open |
9.4.2009 |
nate silver
|
"[I]t's virtually impossible to imagine taxes on the wealthy [implicitly defined as either income > US$250k or income > US$1m in 2009 dollars] not having been increased substantially by the time Obama's four years in office are up."
8.4.2009
|
24 months
|
open |
8.4.2009 |
bill nelson
|
Within a year, we will have bin Laden.
8.4.2009
|
3 weeks
|
open |
8.4.2009 |
bruce bueno de mesquita
|
Iran will not produce a nuclear bomb before the end of 2010.
7.2.2009
|
10 months
|
open |
8.4.2009 |
bruce bueno de mesquita
|
Moneyed interests and will become the increasingly dominant force in Iranian politics, while Ahmedinijad will lose influence and the mullahs will become slightly more influential.
7.2.2009
|
10 months
|
open |
12.4.2009 |
pat robertson
|
"Israel... a strong government that deals forcefully with the Palestinians will bring international condemnation and sanctions against Israel"
1.1.2009
|
-2 months
|
open |
5.4.2009 |
pat robertson
|
"Russia... will lead the coalition to control the Middle East"
1.1.2009
|
-2 months
|
open |
5.4.2009 |
nate silver
|
The model predicts that by 2012, almost half of the 50 states would vote against a marriage ban, including several states that had previously voted to ban it.
4.4.2009
|
36 months
|
open |
4.4.2009 |
nate silver
|
The population of Iowa will first vote on a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in 2012; when they do, the vote will be a tossup.
3.4.2009
|
34 months
|
open |
4.4.2009 |
jeff vail
|
For all practical purposes, the Mexican state won’t survive to see 2012.
9.3.2009
|
23 months
|
open |
3.4.2009 |
igor panarin
|
mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall (i.e. fall 2010) and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.
29.12.2008
|
4 months
|
open |
2.4.2009 |
gerald celente
|
by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts.
10.11.2008
|
23 months
|
open |
2.4.2009 |
william safire
|
Supreme court will decide that in al-Marri v. Pucciarelli, a legal U.S. resident cannot be held indefinitely at Guantánamo
29.12.2008
|
-2 months
|
wrong |
30.3.2009 |
