| author |
prediction |
testable |
status |
updated |
john gruber
|
There will be new iPods announced in September 9.
8.9.2009
|
-11 months
|
right |
9.9.2009 |
nouriel roubini
|
"Potential GDP growth might also take a hit, falling from around 2.8% during 1997-2008 to around 2.25% in the coming years."
20.8.2009
|
57 months
|
open |
29.8.2009 |
nouriel roubini
|
"However, the NBER is not likely to call the end of the recession until at least late 2009 or early 2010."
20.8.2009
|
-5 months
|
open |
29.8.2009 |
nouriel roubini
|
"I now forecast that the U.S. will display positive real GDP growth in the second half of 2009."
20.8.2009
|
-6 months
|
open |
29.8.2009 |
nate silver
|
"the recession likely does not have enough gas left to get us to 10 percent unemployment."
(Timeframe not clear, although the post references an intrade.com bet on whether or not the unemployment number will be >10% in december)
10.8.2009
|
-6 months
|
open |
12.8.2009 |
nouriel roubini
|
"I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If, as I predicted, the recession is over by the end of the year, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010."
16.7.2009
|
-6 months
|
open |
2.8.2009 |
bruce jackson
|
"UK base interest rates will remain at 0.5% throughout the rest of this year."
2.7.2009
|
-7 months
|
open |
8.7.2009 |
bruce jackson
|
The FTSE 100 will trade in a range between 3,900 and 4,700 between now and the end of 2009.
2.7.2009
|
-7 months
|
open |
8.7.2009 |
nigel gault
|
"The heavy loss of jobs in June is a warning that the road to recovery will be bumpy," Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist for IHS Global Insight, a forecasting firm, said in a written analysis. "We expect job losses to continue throughout 2009, and the unemployment rate to peak at 10.3 percent in the first half of 2010."
5.7.2009
|
-1 months
|
open |
8.7.2009 |
jeremy grantham
|
So by analogy to the normal Presidential Cycle effect, driven by stimulus and moral hazard, we are likely to have a remarkable stock rally, far in excess of anything justified by either long-term or short-term economic fundamentals. My guess is that the S&P 500 is quite likely to run for a while, way beyond fair value (880 on our revised data), to the 1000-1100 level or so before the end of the year.
1.5.2009
|
-7 months
|
open |
25.7.2009 |
jeremy grantham
|
The Last Hurrah and Seven Lean Years
[or the VL Shape Recovery]
Well, what I’m proposing could be known as a VL recovery (or very long), in which the stimulus causes a fairly quick but superficial recovery, followed by a second decline, followed in turn by a long, drawn-out period of sub-normal growth as the basic underlying economic and financial
problems are corrected.
I expect that, at least for the seven lean years and perhaps longer, the developed world will have to settle for about 2% real GDP growth (perhaps 2.25%) down from the 3.5% to which we used to aspire in the last 30 years. Together with all the readjustment problems and quite possibly with some accompanying higher inflation, this is likely to lead to an extended period of below average P/Es
1.5.2009
|
48 months
|
open |
24.7.2009 |
christine dugas
|
The unemployment rate could hit 10% this year.
3.6.2009
|
-7 months
|
open |
8.7.2009 |
jim sinclair
|
"130 Day Warning
Yes, that is right. You have a little more than 130 DAYS before MOPE (management of perspective economics) falls into the abyss of loss of confidence in the US dollar.
The event will be the birth of hyperinflation in the US and elsewhere to the horror of the spin media."
Note) Jim Sinclair is definitely a pundit. He's on TV:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyB_NmlNFqU
1.7.2009
|
-9 months
|
open |
25.7.2009 |
robert prechter
|
Technical analyst Robert Prechter on Monday said he sees the United States losing its top AAA credit rating by the end of 2010, as he stuck by a deeply bearish outlook on the U.S. economy and stock market.
15.6.2009
|
5 months
|
open |
19.6.2009 |
scott moritz
|
"the Apple tablet will be a flop next year"
24.5.2009
|
5 months
|
open |
1.6.2009 |
jean-claude trichet
|
The global downturn has bottomed (May, 2009).
15.5.2009
|
-7 months
|
open |
1.6.2009 |
david fyfe
|
"World oil demand this year will post the sharpest annual decline since 1981 ... Demand will contract by 2.56 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2009, the agency, which advises 28 industrialized countries, said in a monthly report."
14.5.2009
|
-7 months
|
open |
1.6.2009 |
james howard kunstler
|
"The airline industry, of course, will be toast inside of five years."
4.5.2009
|
49 months
|
open |
14.5.2009 |
bill evans
|
The Australian economy will begin to recover by the end of this year
8.5.2009
|
-7 months
|
open |
6.8.2009 |
james kunstler
|
"The airline industry, of course, will be toast inside of five years."
4.5.2009
|
49 months
|
open |
8.5.2009 |
