| author |
prediction |
testable |
status |
updated |
ouriel ohayon
|
10 startups i think will be acquired soon: evernote, posterous/tumblr, twitter, animoto, tweetdeck/seesmic, stardoll, etsy, apture. agree?
11.8.2009
|
5 months
|
open |
9.9.2009 |
nouriel roubini
|
"Potential GDP growth might also take a hit, falling from around 2.8% during 1997-2008 to around 2.25% in the coming years."
20.8.2009
|
62 months
|
open |
29.8.2009 |
nouriel roubini
|
"However, the NBER is not likely to call the end of the recession until at least late 2009 or early 2010."
20.8.2009
|
-11 days
|
open |
29.8.2009 |
nouriel roubini
|
"I now forecast that the U.S. will display positive real GDP growth in the second half of 2009."
20.8.2009
|
-1 months
|
open |
29.8.2009 |
robert prechter
|
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may plunge to less than $10 a barrel in the next decade after surging to a record $147 last year, said Robert Prechter, who achieved fame for cautioning on Oct. 5, 1987, that stocks would crash.
“I expect crude oil prices to fall below $10 a barrel sometime over the next decade,” Prechter, founder of Elliott Wave International Inc., said in an e-mail yesterday. “It took many years for it to achieve $147.50, and it will take a long while for the full retreat to occur.”
Oil should fall to between $4 and $10 a barrel based on a technical analysis called Elliott Wave principle, Prechter said in the Elliott Wave Theorist report last month. The forecast rests on a “supercycle” theory, which through a series of five waves from last century suggests a decline from last year’s peak.
12.8.2009
|
62 months
|
open |
29.8.2009 |
charles stross
|
One moment, self-driving cars are science fiction, the next self-driving stuff is going to show up very rapidly once it falls below a certain price point. Initially in luxury cars, but within five years in cheap ones.
6.8.2009
|
57 months
|
open |
12.8.2009 |
nate silver
|
"the recession likely does not have enough gas left to get us to 10 percent unemployment."
(Timeframe not clear, although the post references an intrade.com bet on whether or not the unemployment number will be >10% in december)
10.8.2009
|
-1 months
|
open |
12.8.2009 |
jason fried
|
"I predict Microsoft buys Palm within the next 18 months."
31.7.2009
|
11 months
|
open |
2.8.2009 |
michael scalisi
|
I’m no Apple hater, and I welcome an Apple device to the (don’t call it a) netbook market, but I've got to think this device would be a flop. This concept is such a train wreck from start to finish that I don’t know where to begin.
27.7.2009
|
10 months
|
open |
2.8.2009 |
ezra klein
|
We will spend a trillion or a bit more covering the un- and underinsured.
23.6.2009
|
23 months
|
open |
24.7.2009 |
nouriel roubini
|
"I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If, as I predicted, the recession is over by the end of the year, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010."
16.7.2009
|
-1 months
|
open |
2.8.2009 |
jason kottke
|
"I predict Google will be the biggest and most important company in the world in 5-8 years."
4.4.2004
|
26 months
|
open |
25.7.2009 |
beth lynn eicher
|
"Microsoft will no longer have the majority market share in 24 months"
7.7.2009
|
16 months
|
open |
8.7.2009 |
bruce jackson
|
"UK base interest rates will remain at 0.5% throughout the rest of this year."
2.7.2009
|
-2 months
|
open |
8.7.2009 |
bruce jackson
|
The FTSE 100 will trade in a range between 3,900 and 4,700 between now and the end of 2009.
2.7.2009
|
-2 months
|
open |
8.7.2009 |
simon walters
|
Gordon Brown "plans to quit before next election to avoid humiliating defeat"
21.6.2009
|
2 months
|
open |
8.7.2009 |
bruce bueno de mesquita
|
Iran will have mastered the generation of energy-grade nuclear material by early 2011, and given up on development of nuclear bombs in favor of civilian nuclear energy.
1.2.2009
|
15 months
|
open |
8.7.2009 |
nigel gault
|
"The heavy loss of jobs in June is a warning that the road to recovery will be bumpy," Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist for IHS Global Insight, a forecasting firm, said in a written analysis. "We expect job losses to continue throughout 2009, and the unemployment rate to peak at 10.3 percent in the first half of 2010."
5.7.2009
|
3 months
|
open |
8.7.2009 |
jeremy grantham
|
So by analogy to the normal Presidential Cycle effect, driven by stimulus and moral hazard, we are likely to have a remarkable stock rally, far in excess of anything justified by either long-term or short-term economic fundamentals. My guess is that the S&P 500 is quite likely to run for a while, way beyond fair value (880 on our revised data), to the 1000-1100 level or so before the end of the year.
1.5.2009
|
-2 months
|
open |
25.7.2009 |
jeremy grantham
|
The Last Hurrah and Seven Lean Years
[or the VL Shape Recovery]
Well, what I’m proposing could be known as a VL recovery (or very long), in which the stimulus causes a fairly quick but superficial recovery, followed by a second decline, followed in turn by a long, drawn-out period of sub-normal growth as the basic underlying economic and financial
problems are corrected.
I expect that, at least for the seven lean years and perhaps longer, the developed world will have to settle for about 2% real GDP growth (perhaps 2.25%) down from the 3.5% to which we used to aspire in the last 30 years. Together with all the readjustment problems and quite possibly with some accompanying higher inflation, this is likely to lead to an extended period of below average P/Es
1.5.2009
|
53 months
|
open |
24.7.2009 |
