| author |
prediction |
testable |
status |
updated |
simon walters
|
Gordon Brown "plans to quit before next election to avoid humiliating defeat"
21.6.2009
|
-2 months
|
open |
8.7.2009 |
bruce bueno de mesquita
|
Iran will have mastered the generation of energy-grade nuclear material by early 2011, and given up on development of nuclear bombs in favor of civilian nuclear energy.
1.2.2009
|
10 months
|
open |
8.7.2009 |
nigel gault
|
"The heavy loss of jobs in June is a warning that the road to recovery will be bumpy," Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist for IHS Global Insight, a forecasting firm, said in a written analysis. "We expect job losses to continue throughout 2009, and the unemployment rate to peak at 10.3 percent in the first half of 2010."
5.7.2009
|
-1 months
|
open |
8.7.2009 |
jeremy grantham
|
So by analogy to the normal Presidential Cycle effect, driven by stimulus and moral hazard, we are likely to have a remarkable stock rally, far in excess of anything justified by either long-term or short-term economic fundamentals. My guess is that the S&P 500 is quite likely to run for a while, way beyond fair value (880 on our revised data), to the 1000-1100 level or so before the end of the year.
1.5.2009
|
-7 months
|
open |
25.7.2009 |
jeremy grantham
|
The Last Hurrah and Seven Lean Years
[or the VL Shape Recovery]
Well, what I’m proposing could be known as a VL recovery (or very long), in which the stimulus causes a fairly quick but superficial recovery, followed by a second decline, followed in turn by a long, drawn-out period of sub-normal growth as the basic underlying economic and financial
problems are corrected.
I expect that, at least for the seven lean years and perhaps longer, the developed world will have to settle for about 2% real GDP growth (perhaps 2.25%) down from the 3.5% to which we used to aspire in the last 30 years. Together with all the readjustment problems and quite possibly with some accompanying higher inflation, this is likely to lead to an extended period of below average P/Es
1.5.2009
|
48 months
|
open |
24.7.2009 |
christine dugas
|
The unemployment rate could hit 10% this year.
3.6.2009
|
-7 months
|
open |
8.7.2009 |
jim sinclair
|
"130 Day Warning
Yes, that is right. You have a little more than 130 DAYS before MOPE (management of perspective economics) falls into the abyss of loss of confidence in the US dollar.
The event will be the birth of hyperinflation in the US and elsewhere to the horror of the spin media."
Note) Jim Sinclair is definitely a pundit. He's on TV:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyB_NmlNFqU
1.7.2009
|
-9 months
|
open |
25.7.2009 |
dick vitale
|
Dick Vitale claimed that Stephen Curry would be rookie of the year in the NBA
26.6.2009
|
-1 months
|
open |
8.7.2009 |
john gruber
|
iPhones will become more important than Macs on the WWDC:
“But look at their vectors — their relative rates of growth — and ponder how much longer until WWDC begins to feel like an iPhone developer conference with a Mac developer track. My answer: next year. ”
17.6.2009
|
-1 months
|
open |
19.6.2009 |
bruce schneier
|
We should expect to see an actual SHA-1 collision within the year.
16.6.2009
|
-7 months
|
open |
19.6.2009 |
robert prechter
|
Technical analyst Robert Prechter on Monday said he sees the United States losing its top AAA credit rating by the end of 2010, as he stuck by a deeply bearish outlook on the U.S. economy and stock market.
15.6.2009
|
5 months
|
open |
19.6.2009 |
sam kennedy
|
Microsoft will release a new Xbox console next fall.
12.6.2009
|
4 months
|
open |
19.6.2009 |
governor arnold schwarzenegger
|
"I think that the Chinese will, within a short period of time, I can guarantee you, make this [Hummer] car that now gets only 15 miles per gallon ... go 30 miles, 40 miles per gallon,... And it could very well be, knowing the Chinese, that it will go 100 miles (per gallon) very soon."
3.6.2009
|
50 months
|
open |
6.6.2009 |
cory doctorow
|
Regarding access to the Internet: "Here's a prediction: in five years, a UN convention will enshrine network access as a human right."
30.5.2009
|
50 months
|
open |
1.6.2009 |
macquarie research
|
Nintendo will announce a new Mario or Zelda game for the Wii at E3 2009.
27.5.2009
|
-15 months
|
right |
6.6.2009 |
peter diamandis
|
We will find life on Mars within 'the next decade', and discover a 'ubiquitous' bacterial ecosystem.
29.5.2006
|
49 months
|
open |
6.6.2009 |
scott moritz
|
"the Apple tablet will be a flop next year"
24.5.2009
|
5 months
|
open |
1.6.2009 |
jean-claude trichet
|
The global downturn has bottomed (May, 2009).
15.5.2009
|
-7 months
|
open |
1.6.2009 |
david fyfe
|
"World oil demand this year will post the sharpest annual decline since 1981 ... Demand will contract by 2.56 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2009, the agency, which advises 28 industrialized countries, said in a monthly report."
14.5.2009
|
-7 months
|
open |
1.6.2009 |
gene munster
|
Apple will NOT release new iPhone hardware at WWDC 2009. It will focus instead on a new release of MacOSX.
13.5.2009
|
-14 months
|
wrong |
8.6.2009 |
