4.6.2009 — RSS feed and IRC channel

I've put up an RSS feed for the front page (hunt for the little orange icon). This will show predictions as they are submitted and as they are tested. More RSS things in a few days!

I've also set up an IRC channel on freenode, called #wrongtomorrow, for anyone who'd like to discuss the site with me.

4.5.2009 — Mailing List

I've set up a Google group for the site so that interested readers can share ideas for the site in a public place. You can sign up through this widget:

Subscribe to Wrong Tomorrow

Email:

Visit this group

The first order of business is figuring out what "public figure" should mean in the context of the site. This is something I've intentionally left vague, but should pin down soon. Right now I'm tempted to make it a synonym of "has Wikipedia entry", but I'm curious to hear other ideas.

4.4.2009 — Rejection

I've created a list of rejected posts up in the navigation bar so you can see submissions that weren't added to the database. I've tried to include the reason for each rejection with the post. The great majority of submissions were rejected because the person making them is not a public figure. My working definition of this is someone who would be cited in the mainstream media.

Please email me if you think I've rejected any of these items in error, and we can duke it out.

4.4.2009 — On Old Predictions And Selection Bias

A number of people have commented on the problem of selection bias in submitting past predictions (that are already know to be right or wrong) to the site. I think it's useful to have a place on the site for this kind of archival material, but I tend to agree that it's not quite kosher to mix these in with predictions that are submitted while still open. So I'm leaning toward creating a separate section for stuff that predates the launch of this website.

4.2.2009 — RSS Feeds and Twitter Account

I've set up an RSS feed for this blog - click on the orange doodad at the top of the page. Next up are prediction and per-author feeds, which should be available soon.

I've also set up a Twitter account at http://twitter.com/wrongtomorrow; follow along if you'd like to see predictions as they are added and as they are adjudicated.

4.1.2009 — Launch

Thanks to everyone who has linked and visited so far today! There were some PEBKAC issues that slowed the site down for a bit, but I hope those are now fixed. I'll be going through the submission queue and approving things later tonight, and I'll try to rig it so that you get email when your submission is approvied/denied/merged.

Ideas that have been put on the TODO list so far: RSS feeds, Twitter account, fixing dates so you can enter pre-2004 predictions, search by keyword.

3.31.2009 — On Origins

I was inspired to create this site right after reading an article by Robert Barro in early March, where he confidently stated that there was a 20% chance we would enter an economic depression. This prediction (which was widely cited in the media) struck me as perfect since it is completely unfalsifiable. Barro has churned through lots of past data and derives the 20% figure by extrapolating from that data, with a lot of impressive scientific genuflexion.

It was roughly at this time that I had started reading The Black Swan, whose author skewers this kind of post-hoc data mining, and expert prognostication in general. Certainly one of the most striking things about the current crisis is the number of people who completely failed to anticipate it, and have nevertheless since gone on to offer many wise words about what the future holds in store.

There have been a number of prediction-tracking websites created over the years, but they all seem to be either defunct, participatory, focused on prediction markets, or too long-term for my tastes. I figured it would be nice to have a single place where you could go to unequivocally check the track record of pundits in politics, finance and my own field, information technology.