authors / nate silver

statistician, journalist and writer. Blogs at fivethirtyeight.com.

0 wrong, 0 right, 5 open

prediction category testable status submitted
"the recession likely does not have enough gas left to get us to 10 percent unemployment." (Timeframe not clear, although the post references an intrade.com bet on whether or not the unemployment number will be >10% in december)
10.8.2009   		finance -6 months open 12.8.2009
"[I]t's virtually impossible to imagine taxes on the wealthy [implicitly defined as either income > US$250k or income > US$1m in 2009 dollars] not having been increased substantially by the time Obama's four years in office are up."
8.4.2009   		politics 19 months open 8.4.2009
at least one serious contender for the Republican nomination in 2012 will be someone newly elected to his or her state's governorship in 2010. (Nate isn't clear what is meant by "serious contender", but "still in the race at the end of February" seems reasonable)
7.5.2009   		politics 20 months open 8.5.2009
The population of Iowa will first vote on a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in 2012; when they do, the vote will be a tossup.
3.4.2009   		politics 29 months open 4.4.2009
The model predicts that by 2012, almost half of the 50 states would vote against a marriage ban, including several states that had previously voted to ban it.
4.4.2009   		politics 31 months open 4.4.2009