authors / jeremy grantham
0 wrong,
0 right,
2 open
| prediction |
category |
testable |
status |
submitted |
So by analogy to the normal Presidential Cycle effect, driven by stimulus and moral hazard, we are likely to have a remarkable stock rally, far in excess of anything justified by either long-term or short-term economic fundamentals. My guess is that the S&P 500 is quite likely to run for a while, way beyond fair value (880 on our revised data), to the 1000-1100 level or so before the end of the year.
1.5.2009
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finance
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-7 months
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open |
25.7.2009 |
The Last Hurrah and Seven Lean Years
[or the VL Shape Recovery]
Well, what I’m proposing could be known as a VL recovery (or very long), in which the stimulus causes a fairly quick but superficial recovery, followed by a second decline, followed in turn by a long, drawn-out period of sub-normal growth as the basic underlying economic and financial
problems are corrected.
I expect that, at least for the seven lean years and perhaps longer, the developed world will have to settle for about 2% real GDP growth (perhaps 2.25%) down from the 3.5% to which we used to aspire in the last 30 years. Together with all the readjustment problems and quite possibly with some accompanying higher inflation, this is likely to lead to an extended period of below average P/Es
1.5.2009
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finance
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48 months
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open |
24.7.2009 |