authors / bruce bueno de mesquita

senior fellow at Hoover Institution, runs company that makes computer-based predictions in the area of politics and foreign policy .

0 wrong, 0 right, 5 open

prediction category testable status submitted
By the end of December 2010, Iran will have made a quantity of weapons-grade uranium less than needed for a bomb but more than needed just for research. It will have neither made a bomb, tested one, nor maintained only a nuclear program that engaged in civilian activities.
7.2.2009   		politics -7 months open 12.4.2009
Moneyed interests and will become the increasingly dominant force in Iranian politics, while Ahmedinijad will lose influence and the mullahs will become slightly more influential.
7.2.2009   		politics 5 months open 12.4.2009
Iran will not produce a nuclear bomb before the end of 2010.
7.2.2009   		politics 5 months open 8.4.2009
By 2011, no major Iranian faction or political leader will publicly endorse testing a nuclear weapon.
7.2.2009   		politics 5 months open 12.4.2009
Iran will have mastered the generation of energy-grade nuclear material by early 2011, and given up on development of nuclear bombs in favor of civilian nuclear energy.
1.2.2009   		politics 10 months open 8.7.2009